The Rise and Fall of Dennis Smith Jr's Basketball Career: What Went Wrong?
I remember watching Dennis Smith Jr's NBA debut back in 2017 like it was yesterday. The explosive dunks, the raw athleticism that seemed to defy physics - we all thought we were witnessing the birth of the next great point guard. Fast forward to today, and Smith finds himself fighting for rotation minutes, his career trajectory resembling more of a cautionary tale than the success story we anticipated. Having followed basketball careers across multiple leagues for over a decade, I've seen this pattern before, but Smith's particular case fascinates me because it highlights how quickly potential can evaporate in professional sports.
The parallels between Smith's situation and what happened with the Cebu Greats in the MPBL are striking, though they occurred in completely different basketball ecosystems. When JUNTHY Valenzuela took over as head coach of the Cebu Greats after that disastrous start to their season where they suffered five consecutive losses by an average margin of 18 points, he inherited a team that had lost its identity and confidence. Similarly, Smith entered the NBA with tremendous physical gifts but found himself bouncing between four different teams in just six seasons. Watching Valenzuela's coaching transition made me realize how much organizational stability matters - something Smith never really found after Dallas traded him to New York in that Kristaps Porzingis deal.
What really went wrong for Smith? From my perspective, it wasn't just one thing but a perfect storm of factors. His shooting percentages tell a grim story - he's never shot above 40% from the field for a full season, and his three-point percentage hovered around 30% for most of his career. In today's NBA where spacing and shooting are paramount, that's practically a death sentence for a guard who isn't an elite playmaker. I've always believed that players either adapt their games to the modern NBA or get left behind, and Smith's reluctance to transform his playing style ultimately limited his ceiling. His assist numbers looked decent on paper - averaging about 5 per game - but watching him play, you could see he never developed that innate feel for running an offense that separates good point guards from great ones.
The Cebu Greats' turnaround under Valenzuela demonstrates what can happen when there's proper coaching and system implementation. Valenzuela reportedly implemented a more structured offensive system and emphasized defensive principles that turned those lopsided defeats into competitive performances. Smith, unfortunately, never found that kind of coaching consistency or system fit. He went from Rick Carlisle's structured system in Dallas to David Fizdale's disjointed Knicks, then to Steve Clifford in Charlotte, and finally to Portland's rebuilding project. Each stop required different things from him, and he never had the opportunity to develop within a stable environment. Personally, I think this constant shifting stunted his growth more than anything else - young players need consistency more than they need minutes.
Injuries certainly played their part too. Smith missed 36 games combined during his first two seasons with various ailments, including a back injury that reportedly required injections. While he was never the same explosive athlete after that, I've always felt we overstate the impact of physical injuries compared to the psychological toll of constant roster movement and performance pressure. Watching him play now, he still has those breathtaking moments of athleticism, but they're fewer and farther between, almost as if the joy has been coached out of his game. The confidence that made him so dynamic at NC State seems to have eroded with each passing season.
Looking at Smith's career arc reminds me of so many talented players who never quite put it all together. He's what I'd call a "highlight reel player" - capable of producing spectacular individual moments but unable to consistently impact winning basketball. His defensive potential was always there - he averaged 1.3 steals per game in his rookie season - but he never developed the discipline to become a lockdown defender. Meanwhile, players drafted after him like Donovan Mitchell and Bam Adebayo have become All-Stars, which only magnifies the disappointment of his development curve.
The Cebu Greats' story under Valenzuela shows that turnarounds are possible with the right leadership and system. Smith is still young enough at 26 to resurrect his career, but he needs to find his version of what Valenzuela provided the Cebu Greats - a coach who believes in him and a system that maximizes his strengths while masking his weaknesses. He's shown flashes in Portland of being a capable backup, but the window for him to become the star we envisioned is likely closed. In my view, his best path forward is embracing a specific role rather than trying to be the primary option he was drafted to become.
Reflecting on Smith's journey, I can't help but feel a sense of what might have been. The NBA landscape is littered with players whose physical talents outstripped their basketball development, and Smith appears to be another casualty of that gap. His story serves as a reminder that athleticism alone isn't enough in today's game - skill development, basketball IQ, and finding the right situation are equally crucial. While I'd love to see him have a late-career resurgence, the reality is that most players who follow this trajectory never quite recover their potential. The Dennis Smith Jr we see today is a testament to how difficult it is to succeed at the highest level, even when you have all the physical tools to dominate.
