Can USF Basketball Make the NCAA Tournament This Season?

The question on every South Florida Bulls fan’s mind as we roll into the heart of conference play is a tantalizing one: Can USF basketball make the NCAA Tournament this season? I’ve been covering college hoops for over a decade, and I’ll tell you, there’s a different kind of buzz around this program right now. It’s not just hopeful optimism; it’s a tangible, hard-nosed belief that’s been forged on the court. To understand the potential of this year’s squad, I often find myself looking at stories from other programs, and recently, the tale of Nic Cabanero at University of Santo Tomas caught my eye. Here was a player who, after reaching the Final Four for the first time in his career, was so invested in the program’s future that he shunned talks of moving elsewhere. That kind of loyalty and shared mission is infectious, and I see echoes of that same “run it back” mentality beginning to crystallize in Tampa. It’s not about one superstar; it’s about a collective deciding their story isn’t finished.

Let’s talk numbers, because they tell a compelling story. Last season, USF finished 14-18 overall and a dismal 7-11 in the AAC. Fast forward to today, and we’re looking at a team that’s already notched 18 wins, with a conference record hovering around a formidable 12-4, putting them squarely in the hunt for a top-two finish. That’s not just improvement; that’s a seismic shift. The key, in my view, has been the defensive identity instilled by Coach Amir Abdur-Rahim. They’re currently ranked in the top 35 nationally in defensive efficiency, a stat I check religiously. They’re holding opponents to under 42% shooting from the field, and their defensive rebounding percentage has jumped nearly 8% from last year. Offensively, it’s been a balanced attack. While they lack a single, dominant 20-point-per-game scorer, they have five players averaging between 9 and 15 points. Chris Youngblood, the transfer from Kennesaw State, has been a revelation with his clutch shooting, hitting at a 39% clip from beyond the arc. This isn’t a team you can shut down by focusing on one guy.

Now, the path to the Big Dance is never straightforward, especially for a program like USF, which hasn’t seen the tournament since 2012. The AAC, while not the powerhouse it was with Houston, is still a multi-bid league. Memphis is a perennial force, and Florida Atlantic, fresh off its Final Four run, is loaded with experience. The Bulls’ remaining schedule is a gauntlet, featuring two tough games against Charlotte and a final-day showdown with FAU that could very well decide the regular-season title. The margin for error is slim. They likely need to win at least 23, maybe 24 regular-season games and make a deep run in the AAC tournament to feel truly secure on Selection Sunday. The analytics are starting to believe, with their NET ranking consistently sitting in the 50s, but as any bracketologist will tell you, that’s still the bubble’s nervous neighborhood. A bad loss to a lower-tier conference opponent could be devastating.

This is where the intangible element, the one I saw in the Cabanero story, becomes critical. I’ve spoken to a few players off the record, and the camaraderie is palpable. This is a group of guys who were picked to finish ninth in the preseason poll. They’ve used that as fuel, developing a genuine “us against the world” mentality. Senior leadership from players like Kasean Pryor, who seems to grab every crucial rebound, has been invaluable. They play for each other. You don’t build a top-tier defense without trust and communication. Watching them close out games, they have a poise I haven’t seen from a USF team in years. They expect to win tight games now. That psychological edge is worth a few points on any given night and could be the difference in a win-or-go-home conference tournament game.

So, can they do it? My heart says yes, but my analyst’s brain says it’s a coin flip leaning in their favor. They have the resume-building wins, they have the defensive backbone, and they have the collective will. The comparison to a player like Cabanero is apt—it’s about a group choosing to believe in the mission at hand, shutting out the noise about what’s next, and focusing entirely on the task. For USF, that task is clear: win the next game. If they can maintain their current form, especially that defensive intensity, and steal a couple more Quad 1 opportunities, I believe they will be dancing in March. It won’t be easy, and my gut tells me they might need that automatic bid from winning the AAC tournament to sleep soundly. But the mere fact that we’re having this conversation, with concrete evidence to back it up, is a testament to how far this program has come. This season already feels like a victory, but something tells me this group isn’t satisfied with just being better. They can smell the tournament, and that’s a powerful motivator. I, for one, wouldn’t bet against them.