Who Will Win the 2024 NBA DPOY Award? Top Contenders and Predictions
As I sit here watching Rudy Gobert anchor the Minnesota Timberwolves' defense, I can't help but reflect on how much the Defensive Player of the Year conversation has evolved over the years. The 2024 NBA DPOY race feels particularly compelling because we're witnessing multiple defensive savants having career-defining seasons while their teams chase championship aspirations. I've been covering the NBA for over a decade, and what strikes me about this year's contenders is how each embodies that beautiful tension between individual excellence and team success. When Draymond Green famously declared "I want a championship" early in his career, he perfectly captured the mindset that separates good defenders from legendary ones - the understanding that defensive excellence serves the ultimate goal of winning titles.
The conversation absolutely must begin with Rudy Gobert, who's having what might be his most impactful defensive season since his Utah days. The Stifle Tower's numbers are staggering - the Timberwolves allow just 106.3 points per 100 possessions when he's on the court, which would be the best defensive rating in modern NBA history over a full season. What often gets lost in the analytics is the psychological impact he has on opponents. I've spoken with numerous players who admit they alter their drives specifically because of Gobert's presence, settling for contested mid-range jumpers rather than testing him at the rim. His 2.3 blocks per game don't even tell the full story - it's the estimated 8-10 shots he deters each game that makes his impact truly historic. The Timberwolves have built the league's best defense around him, and if voters value defensive ecosystem impact above all else, Gobert might secure his fourth DPOY.
Then there's the Bam Adebayo factor, and I'll admit I have a personal soft spot for his defensive versatility. While Gobert dominates the paint, Bam defends all five positions with equal ferocity. I remember watching him switch onto Steph Curry during last year's playoffs and actually containing him better than most guards could. This season, he's averaging 1.1 steals and 0.9 blocks, but those numbers barely scratch the surface. The Heat's defensive scheme relies on his ability to communicate coverages, hedge on screens, and recover to his man - he's essentially playing chess while everyone else is playing checkers. Miami allows 8.2 fewer points per 100 possessions when he's on the court, which is frankly ridiculous for a team that already prides itself on defensive discipline. If voters value versatility over rim protection, Bam could finally break through after finishing in the top five of DPOY voting for three straight years.
We can't discuss this race without acknowledging Victor Wembanyama, who's doing things we've literally never seen before. The rookie is averaging an absurd 3.4 blocks and 1.3 steals per game - numbers that haven't been matched since the merger. I watched him live against the Knicks last month, and he single-handedly dismantled their offense by blocking three consecutive shot attempts in one possession. His 8-foot wingspan creates problems that offenses simply can't scheme for. The Spurs' overall defense remains mediocre, which historically hurts DPOY candidates, but Wemby is such a statistical outlier that voters might overlook team context. He's already recorded multiple games with 5+ blocks and 5+ steals - something no rookie has ever done. If he maintains this pace, he'll become the first rookie to win the award since it was introduced in 1983.
The dark horse candidate who fascinates me is OG Anunoby, especially since his trade to the Knicks. New York's defense transformed overnight from middling to elite with his arrival, and they've posted a 105.8 defensive rating since he joined the lineup. I've always believed the best perimeter defenders are those who make scoring difficult without fouling, and OG embodies that philosophy - he averages just 1.8 personal fouls per game despite consistently guarding the opponent's best player. His deflections and contested shots don't always show up in traditional box scores, but advanced metrics love his impact. The Knicks have won 12 of their last 15 games with him in the lineup, proving how valuable his two-way play is to winning basketball.
What makes this year's race particularly intriguing is how each candidate represents a different defensive philosophy. Gobert is the traditional rim-protecting anchor, Bam the switch-everything modern big, Wembanyama the unprecedented defensive unicorn, and Anunoby the prototype 3-and-D wing. Having covered previous DPOY races, I believe voters tend to favor players whose defensive excellence translates directly to team success. That's why Green's championship comment resonates so deeply - the best defenders elevate their teams beyond individual statistics.
My prediction? Gobert edges out Wembanyama in what will likely be the closest vote in recent memory. The Timberwolves owning the league's best defense, combined with his narrative as the defensive cornerstone of a potential championship contender, gives him the slight edge. But I wouldn't be shocked if Wemby wins - his statistical dominance is simply too compelling to ignore. What's certain is that all these players understand that defensive excellence isn't about individual accolades, but about making good on that fundamental desire we hear from all great competitors: "I want a championship." And in the end, that championship mindset might be the most valuable defensive skill of all.
